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Post by soullimbo on Sept 7, 2016 2:06:16 GMT -5
Hi Nat...Just make sure Vampire wins the 2nd space So vampire on 2nd space, and the others on the 3rd space makes sense
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 10, 2016 2:45:11 GMT -5
I was gonna suggest that none of us skip during this round. The fact that Malachai is going last might actually be ok, since we have Nat and Than just before him. If no-one skips, we'll know exactly which 9 characters are left by the time it's Nats turn and should be able to dictate matters. Your thoughts?
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Post by Tomcat Murr on Sept 10, 2016 9:32:31 GMT -5
Malachai being the one person who's last doesn't concern me too much (not ideal, but not awful). Nyx taking the opportunity to skip, so she and Adam are the last 2, kind of does. Malachai skipping was probably more to keep us from maintaining that power for 2 rounds in a row.
If she wouldn't skip this round, if we could just keep Malachai alone at the end, fine. But what are the odds of her not skipping if she has the option?
Thoughts?
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 11, 2016 4:30:08 GMT -5
if she skips, then Malachai being alone at the end becomes almost worthless to her (only 2 players from their "side" actually placing characters). But I do see your point, in a way.
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Post by Tomcat Murr on Sept 11, 2016 5:03:22 GMT -5
Alright. I'll go for it. I'm a little wary here, though. But may as well see what happens.
Sorry for the delay, Mas!
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 13, 2016 7:47:09 GMT -5
Race standings: SPACE 9: ZOMBIE SPACE 8: VAMPIRE SPACE 7: MUMMY SPACE 6: GUMIHO (Stopped here because of puddle) START: JIANGSHI
1 Space: JIANGSHI (x2), VAMPIRE (x2), GUMIHO (x2), MUMMY (x1) 2 spaces: MUMMY (x2), ZOMBIE (x1) 3 spaces: VAMPIRE (x2)
Nyx has retrieved:
GUMIHO, JIANGSHI, MUMMY
So these are the 9 characters left in the bag. Nyx, as predicted, did not skip. Mummy x2 Jiangshi x1 Gumiho x2 Vampire x1 Zombie x3
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 13, 2016 7:55:28 GMT -5
The trick is to make sure that Mummy doesnt move 1 , and gumiho doesn't move 2...cause then they would be piggy backing vampire. If either Nat or Than get the last vampire and at least 1 Mummy, then we're home and dry. I reckon we have a good chance of moving zombie 2 spaces, and vampire 3 spaces. Vampire would then be on top of zombie on space 11. The perfect scenario would then be for Gumiho to move 1 space...he would then be piggybacking mummy!! I reckon it can be done. If Nyx puts the mummy on the second space, then it becomes trickier, but still not totally screwed. But I think she's more likely to want mummy to move 1 and piggyback vampire, which is why I think she'll put it on space 1. Hope I'm right
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Post by Tomcat Murr on Sept 13, 2016 10:24:04 GMT -5
Ideally, Mummy wouldn't move at all. A lot depends on space 1. As it stands, Mummy moves. After Nyx does whatever she does, there will be 2 Mummies left.
Scenario: Nyx puts Mummy on 2. Between Than and Nat, we could need at least 1 Mummy and 1 Vampire, 1 Gumiho, and 1 Jiangshi. Effectively, we need to stop Malachai from being able tie everyone for 1 space, making Mummy move. For example, if we get Jiangshi and put it on 1, then all Malachai needs 1 Vampire and 1 Gumiho and Mummy moves. However, if Than, for example, gets Mummy/Mummy/Vampire (thus no Vampires of Mummies left after), he could put them all on 1 and Mummy is assured of not winning. But keeping Mummy firmly in last or first for space 1 could be dangerous, without assuring we have it blocked.
Conversely, if she puts Mummy on space 2, then Nat and Than need all remaining Zombies OR 2 Zombies and at least 1 Mummy. The problem here being there will only be 6 coins between them, and with those 6, they need the right coins to beat (or at least tie) Mummy in 2, beat or tie Mummy in 1, and make sure Malachai doesn't have the 3 coins remaining to undo all of that.
Still need to see what Nyx does, though. She might make this easier, or might make it more difficult. But it's Nyx, so.. probably more difficult. heh.
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 13, 2016 13:21:28 GMT -5
The good thing is that, by the time Than gets his 3 characters, before he places them, we'll know exactly which 3 Malachai is getting and can act accordingly to make sure.
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Post by Tomcat Murr on Sept 13, 2016 22:57:53 GMT -5
Yeah, but there's only so much we can do with space 2, even if we know what Malachai gets. If Than doesn't get 1 more Zombie and the last Mummy (or both Zombies), space 2 is kind of screwed.
Nat, completely unsolicited suggestion: Zombie on 2, Gumiho on 1, Vampire on 3. That way we can potentially block Mummy on space 2, Gumiho can move on space 1, and there's no risk of tying Vampire with everything else on space 1 (and risking Mummy moving on both spaces). If you see something better though, by all means... go for it. Either way, a lot depends on what Than gets for space 2.
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 14, 2016 4:25:19 GMT -5
This is how I see it:
1 Space: JIANGSHI (x3), VAMPIRE (x2), GUMIHO (x2), MUMMY (x1)
2 spaces: MUMMY (x3), ZOMBIE (x1)
3 spaces: VAMPIRE (x2), GUMIHO (x1)
Nat has retrieved:
GUMIHO, ZOMBIE, VAMPIRE
Which would give us this using Tomcat's plan:
1 Space: JIANGSHI (x3), VAMPIRE (x2), GUMIHO (x3), MUMMY (x1)
2 spaces: MUMMY (x3), ZOMBIE (x2) , 3 spaces: VAMPIRE (x3), GUMIHO (x1)
Left in the bag:
Zombie x2
Mummy x2
Jiangshi x1
Gumiho x1
With this scenario, Than MUST get at least 1 mummy, to make sure that Vampire doesn't win the 1 space...or get both jiangshi and gumiho , the odds of NOT getting either of those is huge lol, it would mean he would have to get ZOMBIE ZOMBIE JAINGSHI , or ZOMBIE ZOMBIE GUMIHO. I believe the probability is 10/1!
We also need to be aware that Gumiho still has the potential to win that 2 space! If Than get ZOMBIE MUMMY MUMMY , we're in trouble!
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Post by Tomcat Murr on Sept 14, 2016 7:32:50 GMT -5
In order for Gumiho to win space 2, that's relying a lot on Than's hand being perfect.
Vampire moving in Space 1 would be unlikely - if Than gets both Mummies, he can just not put both in space 1; if Malachai gets Mummy, that's not a concern. Vampire moving space 1 and space 3 isn't a big deal - either way, Vampire is stuck at the puddle. The bigger concern is Mummy, and keeping Mummy from building too much of a lead over Gumiho, in particular.
Than basically needs to be able to pan off the remaining Mummies to keep Mummy from moving on space 2. If Malachai gets a Mummy, then we're screwed - Mummy has a big lead over Gumiho, next round Malachai is still in the last spot - there's probably no recovering from that.
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Post by soullimbo on Sept 14, 2016 12:20:56 GMT -5
I've just had a thought...what if Than skips? Once Nat does this: Vampire -3 Zombie -1 Gumiho -2
We have this:
1 Space: JIANGSHI (x3), VAMPIRE (x2), GUMIHO (x2), MUMMY (x1) , ZOMBIE (x1)
2 spaces: MUMMY (x3), ZOMBIE (x1) , GUMIHO (x1)
3 spaces: VAMPIRE (x3), GUMIHO (x1)
Then worse case scenarion is Malachai drawing 2 zombies! Then the next round we can try and move Gumiho 3 spaces to land on Mummy/Zombie. Should be doable with Nath and Than moving last. Thoughts?
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Post by Tomcat Murr on Sept 14, 2016 15:31:13 GMT -5
Mummy moves to 9 in that case - no matter what Malachai gets, there's no way around it. Which means Mummy would ride Zombie, with no way to move Zombie without Mummy tagging along. Provided Vampire finished first, I'd win... but unless Nyx has Jiangshi (very unlikely), you'd lose. Either everything but Jiangshi scores points, or - if all tied (if we move Gumiho to Mummy/Zombie) - Jiangshi scores the fewest points.
I'll go along with whatever. But honestly, the ideal goal - to wrap this up without it going on forever and without you losing, is try to keep Mummy from moving at all, hopefully get Gumiho ahead of Mummy, and have Vampire or Zombie finish the race.
If Vampire moves 3 this round, and Mummy doesn't move at all (a lot depends on what Than gets... but if he skips, Mummy moves regardless)... it's at least *possible* to finish the race next round - Vampire moves 3 again, Gumiho passes Mummy, and we're done.
idk. It's up to you guys.
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Post by WolfNVX4444 on Sept 14, 2016 16:39:35 GMT -5
I'll be around to post in a few hours. Let me know what you guys think the best thing to do is.
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